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Price and Market Watch

This section analyses prices of specific commodities as it affect specific characteristics of the provincial and regional markets. Specifically, prices at different levels are analysed alongside supply and demand and its implications to benefits of consumers and producers in the context of food security.

Rice Sufficiency

Quarterly and annual data at the provincial and regional level are available. While prices and stocks are available monthly, production and consumption data are available quarterly. Population projections needed to compute consumption and subsequently the demand are available annually. Thus, to facilitate the analyses, the data was aggregate quarterly with population projections assumed to be the same in all quarters. Since NCR is a net consumer, it is set aside in the analyses.

Five indicators are included:

  • Rice Demand: computed as the product of population projections and estimated consumption.
  • Rice Supply: availability of milled rice gains, converted from palay production (conversion factor of 0.654).
  • Rice Adequacy Ratio: computed as the ratio of rice supply to rice demand. A ratio exceeding one would mean supply is much larger than demand, while a ratio lower than one implies that demand is much larger than supply.
  • Rice Vulnerability Index: computed as the ratio of provincial per capita rice stocks to the national per capita rice stocks. A province with lower per capita rice stocks to the national level is considered a vulnerable province, while provincial per capital rice stocks higher than the national figures implies rice “sufficiency” for the province.
  • Net Rice Benefits: the dynamics between farmgate and retail prices affects a wide variety of stakeholders. Smaller difference between the retail and farmgate prices implies advantages for both the consumers and the producers. Large differences however, implies that either retail prices are too high, or farmgate prices are too low. This means that farmers and consumers are going to experience negative effects, farmers receiving lower prices for their produce while consumers are paying high for the rice they consume. In this case, the government can intervene though procurement at the farmgate at higher prices and/or releasing at the retail market at lower prices. Net Rice benefit is computed from the following: $$\text"Net Rice Benefit"=({\text"Retail Price - Farmgate Price"}/{\text"Farmgate Price"}) x 100$$